Archive for March, 2013

Know the Limitation of These Technical Indicators!

Know the Limitation of These Technical Indicators!

By Ahmad A Hassam

The number of technical indicators that are now available in technical analysis is huge and large. Now every trader narrows down the list and in the end only trades with two or three technical indicators most of the time. These two or three technical indicators give them a certain comfort level in making trading decisions.

Most of the indicators are lagging. What lagging means is that they use historical data or past data to give a signal. So, most of the time when the signal is given, the market has already moved ahead. So the effectiveness and reliability of lagging indicators is limited. You need to understand this fact. What you need to learn is the strengths and weaknesses of each indicator that you intend to use in your trading. Because, sometimes, the signal generated by the indicator may nor be reliable at all. So blindly taking it as a trading signal may turn out to be foolish later on. But if you know the weaknesses in an indicator and can understand under what conditions this indicator does not work, you will be more safe in your trading. Now, let’s discuss a few broad categories of technical indicators:

Average Based Indicators: Average based technical indicators are the most simple to use. These average based indicators are widely used by traders in almost all markets whether it be stocks, forex, futures, options, commodities and others. The average is calculated on the past data depending on the time frame chosen by the trader. This is a typical lagging indicator that trails the market. This indicator cannot look ahead and anticipate. So, you need to use it in conjunction with other indicators. A combination of lagging and leading indicators can give highly effective signals. But always keep this in mind, there will always be some room for error with these indicators.

Fibonacci Based Indicators; These indicators are very popular and are being used widely by all sorts of traders in their trading. These are real leading indicators that can look ahead of the price action and anticipate the new direction of the market. Fibonacci Retracements, Fibonacci Extensions and Fibonacci Projections that the three type of indicators that are used widely by traders. But even this is an art. Some trader become experts in making sense out of the Fibonacci levels otherwise never learn how to master these indicators. Combination of Fibonacci and Pivot Point Trading can be very powerful. Now, when a lot of people start using the same thing. Markets tend to reflect that thing and it looks as if the markets also do believe in such things after all. Just remember, markets are just people buying and selling. These overbought and oversold levels are just the reflection of the emotions that people show in their trading. So, markets also believe in what you believe!

Trend Based Technical Indicators; Trend based indicator is one of the simplest. It is formed by drawing a line that connects the high highs in the price action if it is in an uptrend or the low lows in the downtrend. Trendlines can give you an important clue as to the support and resistance. There is something even more accurate than the trendline. It is the trend wall. You need to know all this stuff if you are really serious about learning trading.

Chart Patterns: There a number of chart patterns like the rectangles, triangles, flags, parallelograms and other that are also used as indicators. Most of them are however inaccurate when used solely. You need to learn how to use them in conjunction with other indicators if you want to rely on them in your trading decisions.

Divergence Based Technical Indicators: Divergence based technical indicators are highly popular and to tell you the truth quite reliable if you used them in conjunction with other indicators.

Learn technical analysis and master these indicators if you really want to become a master trader. Most of these indicators when used with caution can give winning trades. Combination of lagging and leading indicators is the best!

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard. Try this 1500 pips Strignano’s Forex Signal Service and know what is the Secret of the 7 Bridges and the Setti Ponti System. Learn forex trading from Tom Strignano. an EX CHIEF CURRENCY TRADER, a real pro and start trading like pros! Learn Fibonacci Retracement!

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Stock to Buy for 3-1-13 – MDC Holdings Inc. – MDC

My stock trade for March 1st is MDC Holdings Inc – $MDC.

The past four quarters, they have beaten their earnings estimates by a wide margin. They have continued to grow in share price from a low of 22.72 almost a year ago to the most recent high of 42.41. Currently at 38.43, they are around 10% off their high. The market has been a bit erratic lately, so this isn’t much of a surprise.

The company is involved in home building and financial services and both of those areas have been improving in the past year. I think this trend will continue which is turn will help grow MDC, as it has for the past 4 quarters at least.

As we head toward their next earnings report in May, I expect their share price to head back toward their most recent high at the very least, if not go a bit higher toward 45.00.

The stock also provides a dividend each quarter which is currently yielding 2.7% which is a little extra incentive if you decide to hold onto the stock for a while.

You may want to wait till next week before you pull the trigger as the market may be in negative mode due to the sequester cuts that hit because Congress decided not to act.